# Consensus estimate

> The average or median of sell-side analysts' forecasts for a company's earnings, revenue or other metric for a given period.

Source: https://www.quantisnow.com/glossary/consensus-estimate
Topic: Glossary / Earnings and fundamentals
Also known as: consensus EPS, Wall Street consensus, analyst consensus, street estimate
Last updated: 2026-10-27

A consensus estimate is the average (or sometimes median) of the forecasts published by [sell-side analysts](https://www.quantisnow.com/glossary/sell-side-analyst) covering a company for a specific metric and period, most commonly quarterly EPS and revenue. It is the benchmark used to judge whether a company beat or missed.

## How it works

Data vendors collect estimates from brokerage analysts and compute a consensus. Different vendors can show slightly different numbers because they include different analysts, drop stale estimates at different times, and may track adjusted versus GAAP EPS differently. Consensus exists for:

- Quarterly and annual EPS and revenue.
- Company-specific metrics such as subscribers, same-store sales or gross margin.
- Longer-term periods, which typically have fewer contributors and wider dispersion.

Estimates move over the quarter. Analysts revise after company [guidance](https://www.quantisnow.com/glossary/guidance), industry data, conferences and peers' results. The direction of revisions into a report (rising or falling) is itself watched as a signal.

## Why it matters for traders

The [earnings surprise](https://www.quantisnow.com/glossary/earnings-surprise) is measured against consensus, so it frames the immediate reaction. A few nuances:

- **Thin coverage:** a small-cap with two analysts has a fragile consensus; one outlier estimate can skew it.
- **Dispersion:** a wide range between high and low estimates means more uncertainty and often a bigger move.
- **Stale estimates:** an analyst who has not updated after guidance can distort the average.
- **Real bar:** buy-side expectations, sometimes captured by the [whisper number](https://www.quantisnow.com/glossary/whisper-number), can differ from published consensus.

## Example

Five analysts cover Pinecrest Foods (ticker PCFD) with quarterly EPS estimates of $0.60, $0.62, $0.63, $0.65 and $0.70. The mean consensus is $3.20 / 5 = $0.64 and the median is $0.63. If PCFD reports $0.66, it beats the mean by $0.02, or about 3%.

## FAQ

### Who sets the consensus estimate?

No one sets it. Data providers calculate it from individual analyst forecasts.

### Why do different websites show different consensus numbers?

They draw from different sets of analysts and handle stale or adjusted estimates differently.

## Related terms

- [Earnings surprise (beat or miss)](https://www.quantisnow.com/glossary/earnings-surprise.md): The difference between a company's reported earnings and the analyst consensus estimate, described as a beat when above and a miss when below.
- [Whisper number](https://www.quantisnow.com/glossary/whisper-number.md): An unofficial earnings expectation, often higher than the published consensus, that reflects what traders believe a company will actually report.
- [Sell-side analyst](https://www.quantisnow.com/glossary/sell-side-analyst.md): A research analyst at a brokerage or investment bank who publishes ratings, price targets and earnings estimates on stocks for the firm's clients.
- [Guidance](https://www.quantisnow.com/glossary/guidance.md): A company's own forecast of future results, such as revenue, EPS or margins for the next quarter or year, usually issued with earnings.
- [Earnings per share (EPS)](https://www.quantisnow.com/glossary/earnings-per-share.md): A company's net income available to common shareholders divided by its weighted average shares outstanding, reported as basic and diluted figures.

## On Quantisnow

- [Earnings calendar](https://www.quantisnow.com/earnings)
- [How to read an earnings report](https://www.quantisnow.com/guides/how-to-read-an-earnings-report)
- [Live feed: Analyst Ratings](https://www.quantisnow.com/news/analyst-ratings)