Mortgages Above 6% Now Exceed Share of Mortgages Below 3%, Marking a Turning Point in the Rate Lock-In Era

As Buyers Adjust to 6%-Plus Rates, the Share of Higher-Rate Mortgages Is Poised to Rise

AUSTIN, Texas, Jan. 14, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- The share of U.S. homeowners carrying mortgage rates above 6% has officially surpassed the share holding ultra-low rates below 3%, signaling a meaningful shift in the housing market after years of historically low borrowing costs, according to new Realtor.com^® analysis of outstanding mortgage data.

In the third quarter of 2025, 21.2% of outstanding mortgages carried interest rates of 6% or higher, edging past the 20.0% share with rates below 3%. While mortgage rates have eased from their 2025 peak of 7.04% in January and settled into the low-6% range by year's end, they have remained above 6% since September 2022—continuing to influence homeowner behavior, market mobility, and housing supply.

"Mortgage rates above 6% now represent a larger share of outstanding loans than the ultra-low rates that defined the pandemic-era housing boom," said Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com^®. "This crossover reflects a gradual resetting as some households trade in low-rate mortgages for higher-rate loans or enter the market for the first time, even as rate lock-in continues to limit the pace of inventory recovery."

Source: FHFA National Mortgage Database

Low-rate Mortgages Remains a Powerful Force

More than half (51.5%) of outstanding mortgages still have rates at or below 4%, and nearly 69% carry rates of 5% or lower. This concentration helps explain why many homeowners remain hesitant to sell: the typical homeowner would see their monthly mortgage payment rise by nearly $1,000 if they sold and bought a median-priced home in today's high-price, high-rate environment.

Ultra-low mortgage rates were an anomaly in modern housing history. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell below 3% in July 2020 and largely stayed there through September 2021—the only period since data collection began in 1971 when rates dipped below that threshold. Those extraordinary conditions left a lasting imprint on today's housing market.

Despite this, the share of mortgages with rates above 6% has increased more than 4 percentage points from the third quarter of 2024 to the third quarter of 2025, reflecting continued buyer activity even in a high-rate environment. Life events such as marriage, divorce, or growing families continue to drive homebuying, while some buyers who had delayed moves may be acting as rates softened modestly from recent highs.

Housing Supply Improvements Push Towards Balanced Market

Housing supply has improved over the past year, pushing the national market into more balanced territory and some local markets into buyer's market conditions. However, inventory remains constrained, particularly in more affordable areas where homes continue to sell quickly amid strong competition.

"Even with rates still elevated, modest mortgage rate decreases into the low-6% range could encourage additional homebuying activity," Hale added. "Further easing in inflation and mortgage rates would be key to unlocking more seller participation, helping to relieve price pressure and competition in an under-supplied market."

Lock-In Effect, Still In Effect, but Beginning to Ease

While roughly 80% of outstanding mortgages still carry rates under 6%, underscoring the persistence of rate lock-in, the fact that mortgages above 6% now outnumber those below 3% marks an important inflection point—one that suggests a slowly loosening grip of the ultra-low-rate era on today's housing market.

Methodology

Realtor.com analysis of FHFA Outstanding Residential Mortgage statistics.

About Realtor.com^®

Realtor.com^® pioneered online real estate and has been at the forefront for over 25 years, connecting buyers, sellers, and renters with trusted insights, professional guidance and powerful tools to help them find their perfect home. Recognized as the No. 1 site trusted by real estate professionals, Realtor.com^® is a valued partner, delivering consumer connections and a robust suite of marketing tools to support business growth. Realtor.com^® is operated by News Corp (NASDAQ:NWS, NWSA]) [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc.

Media contact: Mallory Micetich, [email protected]

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SOURCE Realtor.com