S&P Global Mobility: Pace of May U.S. auto sales to decelerate from March and April surge
U.S. auto sales in May are expected to reach 1.47 million units, up mildly from year ago and month prior levels, but taking an extra selling day to do so.
SOUTHFIELD, Mich., May 28, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- With volume for the month projected at 1.47 million units, May 2025 U.S. auto sales are estimated to translate to an estimated sales pace of 15.7 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR), according to S&P Global Mobility. The SAAR reading will be an expected and definitive step down from the 17.6-million-unit average over the March to April period. With one more selling day than both the year-ago and month prior periods, May 2025 volume is expected to be up 2% from the May 2024 level and up fractionally from the April 2025 result.
"Given the swirling tariff, consumer and auto inventory conditions, the expected May 2025 auto sales result will likely be the last period this year to post positive growth in year-ago and month-prior comparisons," said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility. "The strong sales surges in March and April, followed by the moderate May result, reduced some inventory levels. Shifting tariff policies have automakers scrambling to produce vehicles while they can, but uncertainty abounds in the immediate term and upcoming monthly sales levels are expected to decelerate further."
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales | ||||
May 25 (Est) | Apr 25 | May 24 | ||
Total Light Vehicle | Units, NSA | 1,472,100 | 1,463,379 | 1,431,081 |
In millions, SAAR | 15.7 | 17.3 | 15.8 | |
Light Truck | In millions, SAAR | 13.0 | 14.4 | 12.9 |
Passenger Car | In millions, SAAR | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
Source: S&P Global Mobility (Est), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis | ||||
Continued development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales remains an assumption in the longer term S&P Global Mobility light vehicle sales forecast, although an unsettled regulatory and incentive policy environment has raised the potential that future growth levels will be more mild. In the immediate term, month-to-month volatility is anticipated. BEV share fell to an estimated 7.0% in both March and April, and while some of the lower share could be attributed to strong non-BEV demand, BEV growth is moderating. May BEV share is expected to reach a similar 6.8% share, reflective of the uneasiness as automakers, dealers and consumers continue to digest potential changes to BEV incentives.
About S&P Global Mobility
At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers, and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.
S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.
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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility