Alkami Tops Abnormal-Activity Screen as Four Brokers Downgrade Before the Open and Q4 Guidance Implies Growth Slowing to 15.6%-16.9%

Alkami Technology (ALKT) has the highest score on Quantisnow's abnormal-activity screen at 1:00 PM ET on Thursday, Oct 29, 2026, at 3.51. Bandwidth (BAND) is next at 2.98. Our wire has carried 5 ALKT items today. Over the prior 30 days the stock averaged 0.60 items a day, so today's count is about 8.3 times normal. Four of those items are analyst downgrades, all posted between 6:24 AM and 7:56 AM ET. The fifth is the quarterly 10-Q filed at 8:35 AM ET. Short volume was not elevated going into the report. FINRA short volume on Oct 28 was 30.9% of 691,326 shares, against a 30-day average of 41.9%. No insider purchase filings appear in the last 7 days.

The stock is reacting to the outlook, not to the quarter it just reported. Alkami beat its own Q3 revenue and EBITDA guidance and raised its 2026 targets. Even so, the latest IEX print of $12.32 is about 20.7% below the Oct 28 close of $15.53. That is close to the 52-week low of $12.10 in our price data. The analysts who downgraded the stock are focused on slowing growth and weak new-client wins.

Why ALKT tops today's screen

The screen combines four inputs: wire volume compared with each stock's baseline, insider buying, analyst actions and FINRA short-volume share. Most of ALKT's score comes from the first and third.

Signal	ALKT today	Baseline / context
Wire items	5	0.60/day over prior 30 days
Analyst actions	4 downgrades	5 actions in 90 days, all downgrades
Insider-buy filings (7 days)	0	Recent Form 4s are tax withholding
FINRA short-volume share (Oct 28)	30.9%	41.9% 30-day average
Price (midday Oct 29)	$12.32	$15.53 prior close

These are the four downgrades on our wire:

• William Blair: Outperform to Market Perform, 6:24 AM ET.
• Citizens: Market Outperform to Market Perform, 6:28 AM ET.
• KeyBanc Capital Markets: Overweight to Sector Weight, 6:38 AM ET.
• Craig Hallum: Buy to Hold, with a $16.00 target, 7:56 AM ET.

Before today, the last change was on Sep 24. JPMorgan lowered Alkami from "overweight" to "underweight" and cut its price objective from $24.00 to $14.00. Today Needham also cut its Alkami price target, according to Investing.com.

Short volume tells a different story. The latest FINRA figure is from Oct 28, the session before results came out after the close. At 30.9%, it was below the 30-day average. Short volume was much higher in mid-October, at 70.2% on Oct 14 and 61.7% on Oct 16. FINRA data for today will not be published until after the close. Our guide to short volume vs short interest explains why daily short volume is a noisy signal.

What Alkami reported on Oct 28

Alkami sells digital banking software to community banks, regional banks and credit unions. It released Q3 results at 4:05 PM ET on Oct 28 (press release, 8-K). GAAP total revenue was $134.9 million, up 19.4% from a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA was $26.3 million, compared with $16.0 million a year earlier. GAAP net loss was $6.7 million, compared with $14.8 million a year earlier. That is a 55% reduction in the loss.

Some of the other figures were weaker. Non-GAAP gross margin was 63.1%, down from 63.7% a year earlier, because more of the product mix came from higher-cost third-party products. ARR ended the quarter at $533 million, up 19% from a year earlier. In Q1 2026, ARR was $493.6 million, up 22% from a year earlier.

Alkami raised its full-year guidance. 2026 revenue is now expected at $530.5 million to $532 million, growth of 19.6% to 19.9%, and adjusted EBITDA at $98 million to $99 million. The Q4 guidance shows the slowdown more clearly. Q4 revenue is guided to $139.7 million to $141.2 million, growth of 15.6% to 16.9%, with adjusted EBITDA of $30 million to $31 million.

Many headlines called the quarter an EPS miss. Alkami posted a loss of $0.06 per share, compared with forecasts for a $0.20 profit. Treat that comparison with care. The $0.06 is a GAAP loss, and the GAAP loss got smaller from a year earlier.

How the news changes the picture

Revenue growth has slowed each period:

• Full-year 2025: 32.9%.
• Q4 2025: 34.7%.
• Q1 2026: 29%.
• Q3 2026: 19.4%.
• Q4 2026 guidance: about 16.3% at the midpoint.

The brokers are focused on new sales. William Blair said the stock is likely to stay range-bound until investors gain confidence in new sales activity and the prospects for faster revenue growth. According to Investing.com, the Citizens downgrade was influenced by about $800,000 of one-time revenue that shifted from the fourth quarter to the third. That amount is about 0.6% of Q3 revenue. Adding it back to the Q4 guidance midpoint would still leave Q4 growth below 17%.

The new-client numbers support that concern. Alkami signed five new digital banking clients in Q3, three banks and two credit unions, for 16 so far in 2026. Management linked part of the weakness to the review of a possible sale that ended in September. Executives said uncertainty from the strategic review affected some new-client decisions during the year. The Sep 23 conclusion of the review already hit the stock once: shares fell 15% in premarket trading after Alkami said it ended the review and would remain independent. Once the review ended without a deal, there was no longer a possible buyout to support the price. Today's selling is a reaction to growth alone.

Bull and bear readings

	Bull reading	Bear reading
Growth	FY2026 guidance raised to 19.6% to 19.9%	Q4 guidance of 15.6% to 16.9% is the slowest in the series above
Pipeline	$56M ARR backlog, about $1.7B RPO	5 new clients in Q3, ARR growth down from 22% to 19%
Profitability	Q3 adjusted EBITDA margin up more than 530 bps	Gross margin slipped to 63.1% on third-party mix
Sentiment	Craig Hallum's $16 target is about 30% above $12.32	5 downgrades since Sep 24, with no sale to support the price

The bull case rests on visible future revenue and better margins. The ARR backlog is $56 million across 31 new clients and about 1 million digital users, mostly expected to go live within 12 months. Remaining performance obligations (contracted revenue not yet recognized) are about $1.7 billion, or 3.2 times live ARR. The Q3 adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.5% was more than 530 basis points higher than a year earlier. Over the long term, management is targeting a "Rule of 45" by 2030 (revenue growth plus EBITDA margin of at least 45%), with gross margin approaching 70%.

The bear case is that the $56 million backlog equals about 10.5% of live ARR. Five new clients a quarter may not refill it fast enough to stop growth from slowing further. Insider activity offers no counter-signal. The last 90 days of insider filings on our ALKT insider page are withholding sales. CEO Alex Shootman's Sep 9 Form 4 left him with 1,169,409 shares, worth about $14.4 million at $12.32. Our Form 4 guide explains why tax-withholding sales carry little information.

What to watch next

• The 2027 outlook. Hudson said Alkami will give its full 2027 outlook with Q4 results and expects to sharpen its focus on profitability next year. No date has been scheduled in our data.
• Q4 go-lives. The revenue outlook assumes a heavier Q4 launch schedule, continued cross-selling and mid-single-digit growth in revenue per user. Delays would put the Q4 guidance at risk.
• New-client counts. A fourth quarter at or below 5 new clients would support William Blair's "range-bound" view.
• Insider purchases. A Form 4 open-market buy near the 52-week low would be the first in our 90-day record. Track it on latest insider purchases.
• Short volume. FINRA data for Oct 29 will show whether short sellers joined today's selling.