New report from Oliver Wyman and Association of Equipment Manufacturers finds rising uncertainty is reshaping equipment manufacturing
Oliver Wyman, a global leader in management consulting and a business of Marsh McLennan (NYSE:MMC), and the Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM) today unveiled findings from a joint study on the state of the North America's industrial goods sector, focusing on construction and agricultural manufacturing.
The State of the Industrial Goods North America, Non-Road Edition, reveals declining sentiment among equipment manufacturers in the face of tariff unpredictability, which reduces bandwidth for innovation and longer-term planning. In today's environment of heightened uncertainty, this study finds that 51% of industrial goods companies are dedicated to short term initiatives of less than one year, while also monitoring the evolving market dynamics and returning to core business fundamentals to better position themselves for resilience and future growth.
Even for an industry accustomed to cycles, equipment manufacturing executives report the current downturn has been fast and steep. On a scale of 1 to 10, executives on average gave industrial's current condition a rating of 5.7, down from 8 last year. Sentiment was lowest in agriculture, which is experiencing meaningful revenue declines. Net farm income tracks directly to agricultural equipment sales, and the price of many crops is declining while input costs are increasing. In the past five years, agricultural equipment revenue in the US has declined by 3.4%, with a sharp decrease between 2022 and 2023 followed by a period of flat growth. The majority of marketing leaders (63%) expect this decline to continue, marking the highest anticipated revenue drop within the off-highway market.
Uncertainty surrounding tariffs dominates executive sentiment. Leaders describe a pervasive "tariff myopia," in which the urgent need to manage unpredictable trade policies reduces bandwidth for strategic planning. The report finds 68% of companies have experienced significant setbacks with long-term planning due to the changing tariff landscape. In addition, companies are also navigating inflation and high interest rates. Many companies have established dedicated "war rooms" to tackle these headwinds, and the ongoing uncertainty continues to consume valuable leadership time.
Despite these constraints, industry leaders are optimistic about what lies ahead, and many expect a rebound in market conditions. More than 70% of executives express confidence in their companies' ability to adapt and thrive, emphasizing growth through core product innovation, aftermarket services, and international expansion. Paired with focusing on near-term initiatives, companies are responding to the challenges in today's market by strengthening their core foundations.
"Despite the downturn driven by tariff uncertainty and economic pressures, the industrial goods sector is adapting by revisiting core strengths. This is a strategic response that prioritizes product reliability, operational discipline, and customer experience," said Michael Sharov, Partner in Oliver Wyman's Transportation and Advanced Industrials practice. "Companies are embracing short-term initiatives, driving workforce development and aftermarket services, while investing in innovation, digital tools, and new distribution models to navigate today's challenges and position themselves for growth. This approach attests to the industry's resilience and dedication to long-term growth in a changing landscape."
All along the value chain, foundations of the industry are in a state of fluidity. Looking ahead, this report identifies fundamental changes to the industrial goods sector over the next 5 to 10 years, including adapting to new distribution models; customer segmentation shifts; labor shortages and skills gaps; digital tool adoption and monetization, and more.
"Behind every data point in this report is a manufacturer working hard to deliver the equipment that builds, feeds, and powers North America," said Megan Tanel, president and CEO of the Association of Equipment Manufacturers. "The challenges are real, but so is our industry's determination. By embracing innovation, supporting our workforce, and advocating for the right policy environment, equipment manufacturers are positioning themselves for long-term growth and leadership in a rapidly changing global market."
About Oliver Wyman
Oliver Wyman, a business of Marsh McLennan (NYSE:MMC), is a management consulting firm combining deep industry knowledge with specialized expertise to help clients optimize their business, improve operations and accelerate performance. Marsh McLennan is a global leader in risk, strategy and people, advising clients in 130 countries across four businesses: Marsh, Guy Carpenter, Mercer and Oliver Wyman. With annual revenue of over $24 billion and more than 90,000 colleagues, Marsh McLennan helps build the confidence to thrive through the power of perspective. For more information, visit marshmclennan.com, follow us on LinkedIn and X.
About The Association of Equipment Manufacturers
The Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM) is North America's premier trade organization representing off-road equipment manufacturers and their value chain partners. With a history spanning over 130+ years, AEM serves more than 1,100 member companies across 200+ product lines in multiple sectors including construction, agriculture, mining, utility, and forestry. AEM supports an industry that contributes approximately $316 billion annually to the U.S. economy while sustaining 2.3 million jobs. Through advocacy, market intelligence, and industry collaboration, AEM works to advance the interests of equipment manufacturers and their partners in the global marketplace.
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Danielle Arceneaux
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