Nutrien revised full-year 2022 earnings guidance to reflect lower near-term potash sales volumes and prices; continue to advance strategic growth initiatives based on a positive multi-year view of the fundamentals.

Nutrien Ltd. (NYSE:NTR) announced today its third quarter 2022 results, with net earnings of $1.6 billion ($2.94 diluted net earnings per share), which includes a non-cash impairment reversal of $330 million relating to our Phosphate operations. Third quarter 2022 adjusted net earnings per share¹ were $2.51 and adjusted EBITDA¹ was $2.5 billion.

"Nutrien has delivered record earnings in 2022 due to the strength of agriculture fundamentals, higher fertilizer prices and excellent Retail performance. During the third quarter, we saw a temporary reduction in potash purchasing in North America and Brazil, which has impacted our sales volumes and realized prices in the second half of the year. However, the underlying demand drivers remain strong and global fertilizer supply challenges still persist, creating a supportive environment for Nutrien as we look ahead to 2023 and beyond," commented Ken Seitz, Nutrien's President and CEO.

"We are focused on efficiently supplying our customers with the products and services they need to help sustainably feed a growing world. We continue to take a multi-year view of the market and remain confident that our additional low-cost potash and nitrogen production capability will be required to meet future demand," added Mr. Seitz.

Highlights:

Nutrien generated record net earnings of $6.6 billion and adjusted EBITDA¹ of $10.1 billion in the first nine months of 2022 due to higher realized prices and strong Retail performance, more than offsetting a reduction in fertilizer sales volumes. As a result, cash provided by operating activitiesimproved to $3.4 billion in the first nine months of 2022.
Nutrien revised full-year 2022 adjusted EBITDA guidance¹ and adjusted net earnings per share guidance¹ to $12.2 to $13.2 billion and $13.25 to $14.50 per share, respectively.
Nutrien Ag Solutions ("Retail") delivered record adjusted EBITDA in the first nine months of 2022, due to supportive market conditions in key regions where we operate. Retail cash operating coverage ratio¹ as at September 30, 2022 improved to 55 percent compared to 59 percent for the same period in 2021 driven by higher margins.
Potash adjusted EBITDA increased in the third quarter and the first nine months of 2022 compared to the prior year due to higher net realized selling prices and record offshore sales volumes, more than offsetting lower North American sales volumes.
Nitrogen third quarter and first nine months of 2022 adjusted EBITDA increased compared to the prior year due to higher net realized selling prices that more than offset higher natural gas costs and lower ammonia and urea sales volumes.
In the third quarter of 2022, we recognized a non-cash impairment reversal of $330 million associated with our Phosphate operations and $780 million for the first nine months due to a more favorable outlook for phosphate margins.
Nutrien repurchased approximately 40 million shares year-to-date as of November 1, 2022, under our share repurchase programs, for a total of approximately $3.5 billion. Nutrien plans to allocate approximately $4 billion to share repurchases in 2022. While some repurchases may now extend into the first quarter of 2023 due to lower forecasted operating cash flow in 2022, we still intend on completing our existing 10 percent share repurchase program prior to its expiry in February 2023.

1 These (and any related guidance, if applicable) are non-IFRS financial measures. See the "Non-IFRS Financial Measures" section for further information.

Management's Discussion and Analysis

The following management's discussion and analysis ("MD&A") is the responsibility of management and is dated as of November 2, 2022. The Board of Directors ("Board") of Nutrien carries out its responsibility for review of this disclosure principally through its audit committee, comprised exclusively of independent directors. The audit committee reviews and, prior to its publication, approves this disclosure pursuant to the authority delegated to it by the Board. The term "Nutrien" refers to Nutrien Ltd. and the terms "we", "us", "our", "Nutrien" and "the Company" refer to Nutrien and, as applicable, Nutrien and its direct and indirect subsidiaries on a consolidated basis. Additional information relating to Nutrien (which, except as otherwise noted, is not incorporated by reference herein), including our annual report dated February 17, 2022 ("2021 Annual Report"), which includes our annual audited consolidated financial statements and MD&A, and our annual information form dated February 17, 2022 ("2021 Annual Information Form"), each for the year ended December 31, 2021, can be found on SEDAR at www.sedar.com and on EDGAR at www.sec.gov. No update is provided to the disclosure in our 2021 annual MD&A except for material information since the date of our annual MD&A. The Company is a foreign private issuer under the rules and regulations of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC").

This MD&A is based on and should be read in conjunction with the Company's unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements as at and for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2022 ("interim financial statements") based on International Financial Reporting Standards ("IFRS") as issued by the International Accounting Standards Board and prepared in accordance with International Accounting Standard 34 "Interim Financial Reporting", unless otherwise noted. This MD&A contains certain non-IFRS financial measures and ratios and forward-looking statements, which are described in the "Non-IFRS Financial Measures" and the "Forward-Looking Statements" sections, respectively.

Market Outlook and Guidance

Agriculture and Retail

Global grain stocks-to-use ratio, excluding China, is projected to decline to the lowest level in more than a quarter century, driven by reduced corn and wheat production expectations in the US and Europe. As a result of historically tight supply and demand balances, spot prices of corn, soybeans and wheat are up 25 to 50 percent compared to the 10-year average and we expect strong futures prices will provide an incentive for growers to boost production in 2023.

The re-opening of the Black Sea to Ukrainian grain exports positively impacted exports from the region but there is uncertainty over the continuation of the United Nations brokered agreement with Russia. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects that Ukrainian grain exports will decline by 44 percent year-over-year in 2023, in large part driven by reduced production levels.

Weather has been favorable in North America and we anticipate that the rapid pace of harvest will support strong fall ammonia demand and normal application rates of potash, phosphate and crop protection products.

South American spring crop planting is proceeding with a mix of planting conditions. Argentina continues to be impacted by La Nina-related drought, while planting conditions in much of Brazil have generally been favorable. We expect that Brazilian soybean acreage will increase by 3 to 4 percent, which is also expected to support a proportional increase in safrinha corn acreage.

Crop Nutrient Markets

Potash shipments from Belarus are projected to be down 50 to 60 percent and Russia down 20 to 25 percent in 2022 compared to the prior year, in line with our previous expectations. We have lowered our global potash shipment forecast to between 60 and 62 million tonnes in 2022, largely due to the impact of higher-than-expected inventory and cautious buying in North America and Brazil during the second half of 2022.
We expect robust agricultural fundamentals will support increased potash consumption in 2023 and believe pent-up demand will emerge as inventories are drawn down and prices stabilize. We expect potash supply from Eastern Europe will continue to be constrained in 2023, with shipments from Belarus projected to be down 40 to 60 percent and Russia down 15 to 30 percent compared to 2021 levels. Global potash shipments are forecast between 64 to 67 million tonnes in 2023, with projected Nutrien potash sales volumes of approximately 15 million tonnes.
Nitrogen prices continue to be supported by historically high European natural gas prices that have led to significant curtailments of ammonia and downstream nitrogen products. Shifts in global nitrogen trade flows have led to higher US exports and lower import volumes, which we expect will result in a tight North American supply and demand balance entering 2023.
Chinese urea and phosphate export restrictions have limited exports in 2022 and are expected to persist into 2023. The restrictions have led to low Chinese phosphate operating rates, maintaining relatively tight global phosphate supplies, while contributing to lower global sulfur prices and supporting phosphate production margins.

Financial Guidance

Nutrien revised its full-year 2022 adjusted EBITDA guidance and full-year 2022 adjusted net earnings per share guidance primarily due to lower expected Potash earnings as a result of lower potash sales volumes and realized prices, which more than offset stronger expected Retail earnings. Adjusted net earnings per share guidance includes our plan to allocate approximately $4 billion to share repurchases in 2022.

Nutrien lowered potash sales volume guidance primarily to reflect the impact of the compressed spring application season in North America that resulted in higher inventory carry-over and cautious purchasing.

Nutrien lowered nitrogen sales volume guidance to reflect the impact of Trinidad gas curtailments during the second half of 2022.

All guidance numbers, including those noted above are outlined in the table below. Refer to page 53 of Nutrien's 2021 Annual Report for related assumptions and sensitivities.

	Guidance Ranges ¹ as of
	Nov 2, 2022		Aug 3, 2022
(billions of US dollars, except as otherwise noted)	Low	High	Low	High
Adjusted net earnings per share ²	13.25	14.50	15.80	17.80
Adjusted EBITDA ²	12.2	13.2	14.0	15.5
Retail adjusted EBITDA	2.15	2.25	2.10	2.20
Potash adjusted EBITDA	5.8	6.2	7.6	8.2
Nitrogen adjusted EBITDA	4.1	4.4	4.0	4.7
Phosphate adjusted EBITDA (in millions of US dollars)	700	800	750	850
Potash sales tonnes (millions) ³	12.5	12.9	14.3	14.9
Nitrogen sales tonnes (millions) ³	10.4	10.5	10.6	11.0
Depreciation and amortization	2.0	2.1	2.0	2.1
Effective tax rate on adjusted earnings (%)	25.0	26.0	25.5	26.5
Sustaining capital expenditures ⁴	1.3	1.4	1.3	1.4
1 See the "Forward-Looking Statements" section.
2 These are non-IFRS financial measures. See the "Non-IFRS Financial Measures" section.
3 Manufactured product only. Nitrogen sales tonnes excludes ESN® products.
4 This is a supplementary financial measure. See the "Other Financial Measures" section.

Consolidated Results

	Three Months Ended September 30			Nine Months Ended September 30
(millions of US dollars, except as otherwise noted)	2022	2021	% Change	2022	2021	% Change
Sales	8,188	6,024	36	30,351	20,445	48
Freight, transportation and distribution	204	220	(7)	628	653	(4)
Cost of goods sold	4,722	3,639	30	17,205	13,589	27
Gross margin	3,262	2,165	51	12,518	6,203	102
Expenses	1,056	1,108	(5)	3,368	3,249	4
Net earnings	1,583	726	118	6,569	1,972	233
Adjusted EBITDA ¹	2,467	1,642	50	10,075	4,663	116
Diluted net earnings per share	2.94	1.25	135	11.96	3.41	251
Adjusted net earnings per share ¹	2.51	1.38	82	11.10	3.75	196
Cash provided by (used in) operating activities	878	(1,565)	n/m	3,374	249	n/m
Free cash flow ¹	1,543	862	79	6,770	2,751	146
Free cash flow including changes in non-cash operating working capital ¹	450	(1,890)	n/m	2,496	(544)	n/m
1 These are non-IFRS financial measures. See the "Non-IFRS Financial Measures" section.

Net earnings and adjusted EBITDA increased in the third quarter and first nine months of 2022 compared to the same periods in 2021. This was due to higher net realized selling prices from global supply uncertainties across our nutrient businesses and strong Retail performance. In the third quarter of 2022, we recorded a non-cash impairment reversal of $330 million related to our Phosphate operations, which impacted net earnings and brings the total impairment reversal to $780 million for the first nine months of 2022. Cash provided by operating activities increased in the third quarter and first nine months of 2022 compared to the same periods in 2021 due primarily to higher net earnings.

Segment Results

Our discussion of segment results set out on the following pages is a comparison of the results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2022 to the results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2021, unless otherwise noted.

Nutrien Ag Solutions ("Retail")

	Three Months Ended September 30
(millions of US dollars, except	Dollars			Gross Margin			Gross Margin (%)
as otherwise noted)	2022	2021	% Change	2022	2021	% Change	2022	2021
Sales
Crop nutrients	1,605	1,194	34	214	246	(13)	13	21
Crop protection products	1,716	1,469	17	436	374	17	25	25
Seed	134	140	(4)	33	56	(41)	25	40
Merchandise	241	265	(9)	41	44	(7)	17	17
Nutrien Financial	65	54	20	65	54	20	100	100
Services and other ¹	244	252	(3)	153	170	(10)	63	67
Nutrien Financial elimination ^{1, 2}	(25)	(27)	(7)	(25)	(27)	(7)	100	100
	3,980	3,347	19	917	917	‐	23	27
Cost of goods sold	3,063	2,430	26

Nutrien Delivers Earnings Growth and Expects Strong Market Fundamentals in 2023