Visa Forecasts U.S. Holiday Spending to Rise 4.5% as Consumers Keep the Holidays a Priority
Visa's VBEI forecasts U.S. holiday retail sales up 4.5% y/y in Nov-Dec, strongest since 2021; consumer gift spend up 5.6% to $777.
What this release says
Visa's economics unit forecasts U.S. holiday retail sales to rise 4.5% year over year in November and December, the strongest growth since 2021. Consumers plan to spend an average of $777 on gifts, up 5.6%, though many are shifting to lower-cost brands and stores. For a shareholder in Visa, this is a sector-level view of consumer spending rather than company-specific news.
Key figures
- Forecast holiday retail sales growth
- 4.5% year over year
- Average planned gift spending
- $777
- Increase in planned gift spending
- 5.6% from 2025
- Expected rise in holiday goods prices
- approximately 3.4%
- Inflation-adjusted holiday spending increase
- 1.1%
- Consumers prioritizing physical gifts
- 27%
Positive for shareholders
- Forecast points to the strongest holiday retail growth since 2021, supported by income growth and household wealth.
- Households earning over $200,000 increased holiday airfare bookings and spending, according to Visa credit card transaction data.
Negative for shareholders
- Roughly one-third of consumers earning under $100,000 plan to switch to lower-cost brands or stores.
- Inflation takes part of the gain, with inflation-adjusted holiday spending rising only 1.1%.
- Lower-income groups pulled back sharply on holiday airfare booking and spending.
Written by Quantisnow AI from this release. Not financial advice.
Key terms
- VBEI:
- Visa Business and Economic Insights, the research unit of Visa that produced this forecast.
- Year over year:
- A comparison of a figure against the same period one year earlier.
- Inflation-adjusted:
- A figure with the effect of rising prices removed, showing the change in real purchasing volume.
FAQ
Are consumers spending less on holiday gifts this year?
No. Consumers say they plan to spend an average of $777 on gifts, up from $736 in 2025, though roughly one-third of lower-income shoppers plan to switch to cheaper brands or stores.
Historical context for V
Across the 27 sessions after earlier V headlines, the stock closed higher 15 times and lower 12 times, with a median move of 0.9% in either direction. This shows timing only: many things move a stock in a session, and these figures do not show that any headline caused a move.
| Session | Earlier headline | V | SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Secret SantAI? Visa Survey Finds Americans Quietly Turning to AI for Holiday Shopping Help | +0.7% | -1.8% |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Visa Fiscal Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2026 Financial Results | -0.3% | +0.3% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Visa to Participate in Upcoming Investor Conferences | -1.5% | -0.5% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Visa Announces Enhanced Capabilities That Can Bring Trust and Control to the Future of Business Payments | +0.3% | +0.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Visa Named Preferred Payment Partner of Churchill Downs and the 153rd Kentucky Derby® | +0.9% | +0.3% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Visa Direct Launches Stablecoin-Powered Money Movement as Pilots Move to Production | +2.1% | +0.3% |
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