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In the second quarter, the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) saw a robust real growth of 2.8%, accelerating from the previous quarter’s 1.4% growth and surpassing the 2% estimates. Inflation pressures, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, eased from 3.4% to 2.6%, indicating progress towards the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Core PCE inflation, excluding food and energy items, also fell from 3.7% to 2.9%, though it slightly missed the expected drop to 2.7%. “The US economy is much stronger than people realize. Those concerned about a growth slowdown should feel reassured by this morning's GDP number,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Inde

Technology stocks endured their steepest decline since late 2022 on Wednesday, with nearly 75% of Nasdaq 100 constituents slipping into the red. The Nasdaq 100 — tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) — dropped 3.6%, marking its fifth decline in six sessions and the sharpest one-day drop since October 2022. The tech-heavy index fell below its 50-day moving average for the first time since early May. It mostly stayed above this key support level since late October 2023, barring a brief two-week period between April and May. See Also: GDP Q2 Preview – 5 ETFs To Monitor Thursday As Economic Data Unfolds Shares of Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG), the parent company of Google, plumm

Investors are eagerly awaiting this Thursday’s release of advance estimates for the second quarter’s gross domestic product (GDP) by the Bureau of Economic Analysis at 8:30 a.m. ET. In the first quarter of 2024, the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.4%, a significant slowdown compared to the 3.4% growth in the fourth quarter of 2023. This deceleration was accompanied by a temporary spike in inflation, with the GDP price index jumping to 3.1% in the first quarter, raising fears of stagflation. Besides the second quarter GDP data, investors will closely monitor the weekly jobless claims, expected to ease from 243,000 to 238,000, and June’s durable goods orders, projected to ri

Wall Street started the new week on a positive note, with all major indices in the green. A rebound in tech stocks following last week’s dips bolstered overall investor sentiment. Investors focused on the start of the tech earnings season, looking past President Joe Biden‘s withdrawal from the reelection campaign. Semiconductor stocks, which plunged last week due to threats of increased curbs on China, rallied on Monday. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NYSE:SMH) and the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NYSE:SOXX) both rose by 2.5%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index surged 1% by 12:40 p.m. in New York, poised to snap a three-day losing streak. The S&P 500 edged up 0.7%, while blue-chip stocks in

Bank of America’s chief market strategist, Michael Hartnett, is increasingly bullish on bonds for the rest of the year, viewing Treasuries as a safeguard against equity volatility and the non-negligible risk of a harder landing for the U.S. economy. In his “The Flow Show” note published Friday, Hartnett emphasized that Treasury bonds remained resilient despite the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast projecting second-quarter U.S. GDP at 2.7% and the rising odds of a Republican “sweep” in the November presidential elections. Hartnett predicts that Sept. 18 and Nov. 5 will be “buy the rumor, sell the fact” dates, and continues to advise investors to sell stocks after the first Fed rate cut.

Wall Street is poised to close the week in the red, with all major indices trading in negative territory at midday in New York, as broader sentiment remains weak following a temporary tech outage caused by a cloud software update from CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWD) that led to widespread disruptions across several sectors worldwide. The S&P 500 index is down 0.6% as of 12:50 p.m. ET, extending its weekly decline to 1.8%, marking its worst week since April. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is underperforming the broader market, down 1%, reflecting general weakness in the technology sector and bringing its weekly loss to 3.9%, also the worst in three months. The Dow Jones is also af

Wall Street continues to experience a series of memorable days, with the bulls riding the rally with increasing confidence, certain that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in September. Fed futures currently indicate a 100% probability that policymakers will cut interest rates in two months, according to the CME Group‘s FedWatch tool. This time, blue-chip stocks and gold are stealing the spotlight by breaking their all-time highs, while small caps, as tracked by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM), have posted their fifth consecutive day in the green, marking their best five-day rally in over four years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged to 40,800 points

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Monday the last three inflation reports have bolstered the Fed’s confidence that inflation is moving toward the 2% target, which is the key condition for policymakers to initiate interest rate cuts. “We’re back to a place where inflation is no longer overheated,” Powell said during an interview with David Rubenstein at the Economic Club of Washington. Q2 Inflation Data Encourages Fed Chair While the first quarter showed no progress toward the 2% inflation goal, the second quarter provided more favorable data, Powell said: “We’ve had now three better readings. And if you average them, it’s a pretty good pace.” He reiterated the Fed’s du

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today. Major Macro Arora Call Please click here for an enlarged chart of 20+ year iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT). Note the following: The chart shows that long bonds fell on Trump’s win in the Supreme Court immunity decision. The chart shows that long bonds ran up after falling on the Trump immunity decision. The reason for the run up has been two fold. Weak economic data.  For details, click here to see prior articles. Wall Street almost unanimously calling for investors to extend fixed income duration, leading to investors rushing to buy longer term bonds. The chart shows that long bonds are dropping after

Stocks gave varied reactions on Friday morning to the June Producer Price Index from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics rising 0.2% on a monthly basis. June PPI Report: Key Highlights In June, the headline PPI for final demand rose by 0.2% month-over-month, rebounding sharply from the upwardly revised flat reading in May and surpassing economists' expectations – as tracked by TradingEconomics – of a 0.1% increase. The June rise in the index for final demand is attributed to a 0.6% monthly increase in prices for final demand services, while the index for final demand goods decreased by 0.5%. The 2.6% annual surge in the headline number represented a 0.2 percentage point increase

A lower-than-expected inflation report for June caused wild market reactions, leading to a surge in traders’ expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and boosting assets that are particularly sensitive to high interest rates. As the annual inflation rate slowed from 3.3% to 3%, below the predicted 3.1%, and the monthly reading indicated the first contraction (-0.1%) in four years, traders swiftly increased their odds of a September rate cut, now placing a 92% chance. Surprisingly, large-cap indices such as the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index fell, dropping 0.9% and 2.1% respectively, with the latter eyeing its worst daily performance of 2024, previously seen on April 30. T

The stars seem to be aligned for a reduction in U.S. interest rates in about two months, as the June inflation report released Thursday may provide policymakers with the confidence that annual consumer price changes are finally trending toward the Fed’s 2% target. The inflation rate fell from 3.3% in May 2024 to 3% year-over-year in June 2024, the lowest since April 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The outcome fell short of the estimated 3.1%. On a month-over-month basis, the consumer basket contracted by 0.1%, marking the first negative reading since May 2020. The data sparked a surge in rate cut bets, triggering a rally in interest-rate-sensitive assets. Market-

The Consumer Price Index in the United States slowed more than expected in June, providing further signs of progress Thursday toward returning to the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target and maintaining high expectations for a near-term kickoff of interest rate cuts. Last month, the average increase in a basket of goods and services measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics was 3% compared to June 2023, slightly cooler than economist forecasts of 3.1%. The June report marks the third consecutive decline in the inflation rate, a trend not observed since May 2023. June Inflation Report: Key Highlights Headline CPI inflation slowed from 3.3% in May 2024 to 3% in June 2024 on a year

Thursday’s inflation report is expected to show that prices have ebbed in June as consumers face heavy financial burdens in paying more for necessities such as food, gas and rent. Economists predict the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks prices on items such as gasoline, health care, groceries and rent, will show that prices rose 3.1% in June, down from the 3.3% reading recorded in May, Fox Business reported. But inflation is expected to be rising 0.1% on a monthly basis in June, up from a flat reading in May. “We expect the June CPI report to be another confidence builder following the undeniably good May report,” Bank of America economists said in an analyst note. Also Re

Following the latest weaker-than-expected inflation reports, investors are eagerly awaiting June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report this Thursday to strengthen their expectations of interest rate cuts. While Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated Tuesday it won’t be appropriate to cut the federal funds rate until policymakers obtain “greater confidence” inflation is heading unequivocally toward the 2% target, market expectations currently place a very high conviction on a September rate cut. Fed futures currently indicate a 71% chance of a rate cut at the Sept. 18 Fed meeting and factor in 50 basis points — equivalent to two cuts — of rate reductions by year-end. June Inflati

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated Tuesday that a policy rate cut would not be “appropriate” until the Fed gains greater confidence that inflation is heading sustainably toward 2%, he said during his semiannual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. Reducing policy restraint too soon or too much could stall or even reverse the progress made on inflation, Powell told the Senate committee. “We need to see more good inflation data,” Powell said, adding that the timing for interest rate cuts relies on the data. He also reiterated his June statement that an unexpected weakening in the labor market could lead to lower interest rates. Powell: Economy No Longer Over

As American families gather to celebrate Independence Day, many investors and traders are curious about the market schedule for the July Fourth holiday. Here's a concise guide to help you navigate the trading week around this holiday. Market Schedule Overview Around Independence Day The U.S. stock markets, including the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the NASDAQ, will be closed on Thursday, July 4, 2024, in observance of Independence Day. Additionally, it's important to note that both the NYSE and NASDAQ also observed an early closure on Wednesday, July 3, 2024. Trading ended at 1:00 PM Eastern Time (ET). The bond markets, including the Securities Industry and Financial Ma

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices surged to new all-time highs on Thursday, as investors heightened their expectations for rate cuts following June’s sharply lower-than-expected services sector activity, which experienced its worst contraction since May 2020. Market-implied odds of a Fed rate cut in September rose from 65% to 72%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, with traders pricing in more than 50 basis points of rate cuts by year end, implying two fully priced rate reductions by the Fed. Risk sentiment was particularly strong ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, slated to be released at 2:00 p.m. ET. Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) and the chip making

The U.S. labor market doesn’t appear as tight and hot as a couple of months ago, with the June’s Employment Situation report likely to show an overall cooling trend from a very strong performance in May. Slated for release Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, the official jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to reveal a decline in nonfarm payroll growth and a slowdown in earnings momentum. On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested the labor market is “cooling off appropriately,” and the Fed will monitor these developments, ready to act if conditions warrant. June Jobs Report Estimates: What Economists Expect Economists predict a decline in the pace of monthly new

Business sentiment in the U.S. services sector plummeted in June, missing economic estimates by a wide margin and indicating that the pace of economic growth slowed down markedly at the end of last quarter. The Purchasing Managers’ Index for the services sector, as measured by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), marked the worst contraction since May 2020. June ISM Services PMI Report: Key Highlights The ISM Services PMI fell from 53.8% to 48.8% in June, sharply below market expectations of 52.5% as monitored by Econoday. The subindex for Business Activity fell from 61.2% to 49.6% in June. The subindex for New Orders entered contraction after 17 straight months of ex

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today. Trump Immunity Please click here for an enlarged chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT). Note the following: The chart shows that bonds fell yesterday. Falling bonds mean rising yields. The chart shows that the recent breakout above the resistance zone failed. The chart shows that bonds are now approaching the top band of the mini support zone. The chart shows that bonds fell on heavy volume, indicating conviction. RSI on the chart shows that bonds are now oversold. This means a bounce may occur, but investors need to focus on the longer term. To understand why bonds fell and the impact on your wealth, inclu

It’s a mixed start to the week on Wall Street, with major large-cap indices slightly above the break-even point by midday trading in New York. All investor eyes are on this week’s key economic events, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell‘s speech on Tuesday and the labor market data release on Friday. Large-cap indices are outperforming small caps, which are down 0.8%. The S&P 500 rose 0.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 outperformed, up 0.4%. Among Monday’s best-performing sectors is technology, up 0.7%, while materials and real estate are struggling, down 1.7% and 1.2%, respectively. On the data front, the ISM Manufacturing PMI index fell more than expected in June to 48.5%, ma

Business conditions in the U.S. manufacturing sector deteriorated more than anticipated in June, marking the third consecutive month of contraction, according to the Institute of Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers’ Index. The pace of contraction in June was the fastest in four months, with none of the five subindexes that directly contribute to the overall index in expansion territory, down from two in May. June ISM Manufacturing PMI Report: Key Highlights The ISM Manufacturing PMI Index dropped to 48.5% in June, a 0.2 percentage point decline from May’s 48.7%, falling short of the median consensus of 49.1% as gauged by Econoday. The New Orders Index rose from 45.4% in May

Wall Street experienced a lackluster session during midday trading in New York, with major indices inching slightly lower despite the arrival of positive inflation data. In May 2024, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s key measure of inflation, fell to its lowest level since March 2021, recording an annual rate of 2.6%, which aligned with economists’ predictions. This inflation report further indicates that price pressures are moving towards the Fed’s 2% target, reinforcing market expectations for potential interest rate cuts. However, there is more caution in the market reactions this time, potentially because investors are evaluating the p

The inflation report that’s closely watched by the Federal Reserve — the Personal Consumption Expenditure price index — was published on May 31 for April data and sparked a fresh market rally in June, pushing major indexes to their all-time highs. As traders brace for Friday’s PCE price index report for May, scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, many are wondering whether new favorable inflation data could bring the bulls back to Wall Street after some mixed performance in recent sessions. May’s PCE Report: What Do Economists Expect? The PCE price index is expected to decrease from 2.7% year-on-year in April to 2.6% in May, according to economist consensus data gathered by Econoday